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OSCAR NOMS - NOMINATIONS AND PREDICTIONS, Who Should win, Who will win... etc.


OSCARS - By Army 1601
Yet again it is time for the most worthless, and overhyped award show on the planet, the OSCARS. Not to shy to give a snub, major snubs this year include Christopher Nolan in the directing department, Andrew Garfield in supporting acting, Scott Pilgrim in Visual effects, and DAFT PUNK in Tron Legacy (while it was probably a long shot, they did amazing stuff in 2010). Just because I like sharing my opinion, here are the nominations, and my predictions on who will win, and should win in my opinion.
Visual Effects:

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
Who will Win/Should win: Inception
What suprises me the most here is the snub for Tron Legacy and Scott Pilgrim. Both were F-X heavy and relied on it for their stories and ideas. Hereafter was also met with lukewarm reception and the F-X were, for the most part, not the highlight. But at the end of the day, the technical awards are where Inception will shine this year, so this one belongs to the team that flipped Paris on to itself.
Sound Editing:

Inception
Toy Story 3
 Tron Legacy
True Grit
 Unstoppable
Sound Mixing:

Inception
The King's Speech
 Salt
The Social Network

True Grit
Who will win/Should win: Inception
The technical departments such as sound are all lined up for Inception (with the exception of Editing). The only nominees I see giving Inception a run for it's money are Tron and Toy Story in Editing, and the King's Speech or The Social Network in Sound Mixing. It seems like an odd category for those movies to win, but their giving everything to those movies anyways?
Original Song:

"Coming Home" from Country Strong, Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey 
"I See the Light" from Tangled, Music by Alan Menken, Lyric by Glenn Slater 
"If I Rise" from 127 Hours, Music by A.R. Rahman, Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong 
"We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3, Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
Who will win: If I Rise - A.R Rahman and Dido
Who Should Win: If I Rise or We Belong Together from Toy Story 3
A.R Rahman's work on Slumdog Millionaire shined and it's no different here. I'm personally glad to see something good get nominated instead of all the Burlesque crap at the Globes, but really who cares. It would be nice to see Randy Newman get it for a song that brings back memories of You've got a friend, but it really belongs to AR Rahman and Dido here.
Original Score:

How to Train Your Dragon, John Powell 
Inception, Hans Zimmer
The King's Speech, Alexandre Desplat 
127 Hours, A.R. Rahman 
The Social Network, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Who will Win: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Who Should win: Hans Zimmer
I'll mention again, DAFT PUNK! They should have at least got a nod for their terrific work in Tron, in place of the score for How to Train your Dragon. The Social Network had a great score in my opinion and deserves to win, but I would personally love to see Hans Zimmer take for, in my opinion, some of the best work he's ever done. That score was epic, and truly had original sound.
Film Editing:

Black Swan, Andrew Weisblum 
The Fighter, Pamela Martin 
The King's Speech, Tariq Anwar 
127 Hours, Jon Harris 
The Social Network, Angus Wall 
Who will Win: The Social Network
Who Should Win: The Social Network or 127 Hours
YET ANOTHER SNUB FOR INCEPTION! It seems hopeless to believe that any recognition will be giving to a movie that deserves it the most. It was honestly Inceptions award to win at the Oscar's, the story telling RELIED on the editing of the film, but the Academy are retards, so forget it. If wasn't gonna be Inception, I'd have to say Social Network, for the well done editing between courtroom setting to the tale of Facebook, or 127 Hours for Aron's life changing premonitions.
Cinematography:

Black Swan, Matthew Libatique 
Inception, Wally Pfister 
The King's Speech, Danny Cohen 
The Social Network, Jeff Cronenweth 
True Grit,  Roger Deakins
Who will win: The King's Speech
Who should win: Inception
While Inception seems like the clear winner for the great shots it had, with the Oscar's anything is possible. So I'd have to say the King's Speech since it is the critic's favorite and did have a lot of great shots itself. Although, the movie that does deserve it, should have a great shot of getting it still.
Best Animated Film:

 How to train your Dragon 
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Who Should win and will win: Toy Story 3
It's a shame Tangled didn't get the third spot, it was a great film. But this category needs to explanation, Go Toy Story or go Home.
Actress in a Supporting Role:

 Amy Adams, The Fighter 
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech 
 Melissa Leo, The Fighter 
 Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit 
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Who Will win: Melissa Leo
Who Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld
Given the pre Oscar awards, I'd say Melissa Leo from the Fighter is the frontrunner, she was pretty good. But it would be nice to see the witty and emotional performance of a youngster, that being Hailee Steinfeld, take it away. She proved that age matters not as she might be better than most of the actors in this category

 

Actor in a Supporting Role

Christian Bale (The Fighter)

John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)

Jeremy Renner (The Town)

Mark Ruffalo (The Kids are All Right)

Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

Who will win and should win: Christian Bale

There are so few times where you know an actor OWNED the movie, but Christian Bale did in the Fighter and truly deserves recognition now. Although, Geoffrey Rush might prove an upset here, he was one of my favorite parts of the King's Speech. Andrew Garfield got the snub here and probably deserves the spot over Jeremy Renner, he gave the most sympathetic performance of the year and it would have been nice to see him go into the Spider-Man movie with an oscar nod on his belt.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours (Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle)

The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)

Toy Story 3 (Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, Lee Unkrich)

True Grit (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)

Winter's Bone

 

Best Original Screenplay

Another Year

The Fighter (Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy)

Inception (Christopher Nolan)

The Kids are All Right (Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko)

The King's Speech (David Seidler)

 

Adapted: Who will win - The Social Network  Who should win - The Social Network or Toy Story 3

Original Who will win - The King's Speech Who should win - Inception

For adapted, it's hands down Aaron Sorkin's award, they might as well just send him the award now. However, it would be nice to see Toy Story 3 get recognition for a really well told tale about growing up and loss. For Original, it seems like the critic's favorite will win over Inception. While at this point it may just seem like I'm some Nolan fanboy, don't get me wrong I love his movies, but when a screenplay with a whole bunch of exposition and many layers and emotion works, it is a sight see and must be awarded. The King's Speech is great and all, but it doesn't hold a candle to the screen writing work done on

Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening (The Kids are All Right)

Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)

Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)

Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

 

Actor in a Leading Role

Javier Bardem (Biutiful)

Jeff Bridges (True Grit

Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)

Colin Firth (The King's Speech)

James Franco (127 Hours)

 

For Actress - Who will win and should win - Natalie Portman Actor - who will win and should win - Colin Firth
These two are locks in my opinion. No further explanation is needed as to why these two should win, and I feel is one of the few categories the Academy got right this year. The only word I might offer is that the only one giving Colin Firth a run fro his money would be James Franco, however, an upset is going to be really rare this year in this category.

 

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)

David O. Russell (The Fighter)

Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)

David Fincher (The Social Network)

Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)

Who will win and Should win: David Fincher  Who should even be nominated : Christopher Nolan

The snubs continued as the seemingly obvious choice to include in this category, Inception, is yet again snubbed. Forgive me as I am a big fan of the movie, and feel recognition must be given to this truly original film. But why bother asking from the Oscar's who seem to have questionable prestige when they don't nominate half the right people. If Inception is not gonna win it, David Fincher must take it home for his brilliant work on the Social Network. Turning the facebook movie in to something to be taken seriously is no easy task, yet Fincher pulls it off.

 

Best Picture

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids are All Right

The King's Speech

127 Hours

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Who will Win: The Social Network or the King's Speech

Who Should Win: Toy Story 3 or Inception or Black Swan

It seems like a long shot for either of my should be's to win it, but if any average movie goer wants their faith restored in any award show, I would take that direction. The art of film is in originality, and truly original and compelling storytelling which can be found in those 3. However, if the Social Network or the King's Speech were to take it home it would still be satisfying, but not nearly as much as seeing an originality be rewarded, one thing that is severely lacking in Hollywood these days.

 

There it is, SOUND off if you have your own opinions on who might win or who should win, or who even should be nominated in the first place!

 

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Comment by MultiTool on February 3, 2011 at 4:16am
Well, it's really only Firth's second nomination, it's surprising to me he doesn't have an Oscar already, he's quite the actor.
Comment by Army1601 on February 2, 2011 at 5:13pm

@31 Yuppp I am Fanboy, Hey it was an awesome movie! While it may not be Oscar bait, it definitely deserves recognition for proving Hollywood can still have an original idea or two for every terrible sequel or cliche filled train wreck. And the Social Network realistically could win the awards. Its not just that it was a facebook movie, it more so just featured the making in it, the story was toyed around with so that it could feature themes of humanity and transformation of how people communicate to each other. Thats something the academy typically digs.

 

@thejon93rd couldnt agree with you more about it being overrated, however Colin Firth was amazing. I would like for Franco to win for his emotional performance but the fact that Firth has been nominated many times for the award and has finally come on top with a performance that EVERYBODY is talking about makes me think realistically he'll win the award. And yea the best parts were the Firth and Rush scenes, the rest was putting me to sleep.

Comment by thejon93rd on February 2, 2011 at 9:33am
'The King's Speech' is the most overrated film of the year and I hope that James Franco can pull off the win over Colin Firth because Franco made the audience truly care for the character and we wanted to see him get out of that terrible situation. With Firth in 'The King's Speech', he makes a would be over-the-top performance subtle. I wouldn't mind, at all, if Colin Firth won. However, seeing the award called out to James Franco would be great. [Plus, 'The King's Speech' incredibly disappointed me upon walking out. The chemistry between Firth and Rush was solid, but the rest felt boring and had a "been there, done that" kind of attitude to it.]
Comment by 31 on January 31, 2011 at 8:36am

as for best picture, i think itll go to either The King's Speech (which is prob gonna win), or True Grit. in the last decade, the academy has been liking cowboy movies.

 

with your picks, i just cant see them giving best picture to a facebook movie, i just cant. Toy Story 3 wont win because the academy is still years away from letting a animated movie win best picture, let alone a sequel animated movie. Inception wont because its just not that type of movie. and Black Swan wont because regardless of it being a good movie, its too freaky of a movie.

Comment by 31 on January 31, 2011 at 8:31am

clearly someone is an Inception fanboy. yes its a good movie, is it oscar worthy? ehh not really. the only two i think it should honestly win is cinematography and original score. original score because i have seen so many movies or trailers now that copy Inception so blatantly. though these movies may have not intently done this, Inception did beat everone to the punch. 

Cinematography hands down should go to inception, it was the focus of the movie! thats what it was about!

 

but i like your picks, but i agree with Caliban

Comment by Caleb Kahn on January 29, 2011 at 10:29pm

When it concerns Best Supporting Actor, it brings to mind the notion that three of the nominees are already or will be known as big name superheroes (Bale as Batman, Renner as Hawkeye, and Ruffalo as Hulk). Perhaps the reason Garfield was snubbed and Hawkes was nominated over him was because the Academy wanted to highlight the actor who hadn't gotten one of the most coveted roles in Hollywood: Spider-Man in this case (yet again another superhero affiliated actor)! The Academy will just have to get used to the fact that superheroes are now the big thing and hopefully will be for a long time after! Now, Hawkeye is more unknown to the general public (as of now) while the Hulk (who is a household name) is appreciated and loved by the general public but not on the same level as say a Batman or a Spider-Man or a Superman (even though he could be damned close). So, the Oscars would nominate Renner and Ruffalo for those reasons and also because Ruffalo is a great actor who's time for an Oscar has been a long time coming and Renner is sort of like the new flavor of actor among audiences and critics with the roles he picks. They wouldn't nominate Garfield probably because either way, he's got an iconic superstar role like Spider-Man and they know that if he's successful with that, they'll feel they'll have plenty of time to give him an Oscar and delay his chances even more for future endeavors.

 

While I do love Renner and Hawkes for their performances in both films, I thought both of these guys well deserved a nomination at least, I do feel bad for Garfield in this case. Then again, if I was the president of the Academy, I would bring back the old Best Cast category which existed at one point in time because nowadays, it's getting to the point where every member of the cast is bringing their A-game to films which just shows how amazing the directors are with the actors. But Bale will undoubtedly win because he's proven long before he got Batman, that the Batman stigma doesn't rub well with him! He's like Robert De Niro 2.0 (I'd even go so far as 3.0 given the way De Niro's career has been lately) and with The Fighter, it seems like the Academy has found the perfect Oscar film for them to give an award to Christian Bale for and that's The Fighter. American Psycho was too controversial and polarized. The Machinist was again too controversial and unseen for the Academy to accept. 3:10 to Yuma was too much of an action movie for them to see Bale's performance properly. The Dark Knight was more focused on Heath Ledger (and for the right reasons this time). But now, The Fighter is the safest movie to give Bale an award for because without Bale in the movie, I'm sorry it would've just been another seen-it-before boxing movie. He made that movie as great as it was! I just also find it weird because ever since 2007 with No Country for Old Men, there's always been one performance nominated for Best Supporting Actor where everyone knew it was a foregone conclusion of who would win (Bardem for Old Men, Ledger for Dark Knight, Waltz for Basterds, and now Bale for Fighter)!

Comment by Edward Norton Hears A Who on January 29, 2011 at 10:58am
Thank you Robert colyar. While inception was a good movie it wasn't that great. It was overhyped and there are better movies that deserve to win.
Comment by Caliban on January 29, 2011 at 10:06am

I love Nolan films, but they're not Oscar material. They're not the sort of thing they're looking for.

Especially Inception, his films are always similar in style, not that most directors' aren't, but his style is beautiful and engaging, but it's not so revolutionary or academic.

I would be very surprised to see Inception win anything beyond special effects, sound, and soundtrack. 

Nolan makes the greatest, most intelligent summer blockbusters, but he doesn't create Oscar films.

Comment by Joe's the name on January 28, 2011 at 7:12pm

The reason Chris Nolan never wins anything at the Oscars is because he puts his movies out in the Summer.  July usually.  Personnally, I don't think he should give two shits about the Oscars because his last 3 movies have been in the Top 10 grossed of the year.  TDK and Inception were both in the Top 5.

 

In hollywood, Money is more important then Awards.

Comment by Chris Bartel on January 28, 2011 at 2:26pm

@robert Colyar

yeah there are better directors out there but how many have put out consistent films that were impressive on a technical level like chris nolan has done with almost every film he has made?   I personally like chris nolan movies for there technical aspect and the continued way they almost ask us to think and not just watch his movies.   

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