Looking Ahead: An Adavance Look into Oscar 2009 (Part 2)

If you're just joining right now, then Scorsese's Shutter Island has been moved out of the Oscar 2009 race to February 2010, leaving a huge gap in the already large field of 10 nomination slots for Best Picture this year (after an extension from the usual 5). Part 1 covered the potential nominees from earlier this year (believe it or not, there were more than you'd expect), and now we will delve into the world of the not-too-distant-yet-still-uncertain future, examining the potential Best Picture nominees to come from September to December.

The Informant!(Warner Bros.)-September 18
A re-teaming of Steven Soderbergh and Matt Damon (The Oceans films), The Informant! is a dark comedy/thriller based on the true story of Mark Whitacre (Damon), a bipolar rising star at Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) in the early 1990s who blew the whistle on the company's price-fixing tactics to the FBI. Hundreds of hours of video and audio tapes were recorded by Whitacre over several years to expose one of the largest price-fixing cases in history.
Soderbergh has had it rough recently: his expensive 2-part Che biopic failed to find audiences and earned disappointing reviews, and response to The Girlfriend Experience has been decidedly mixed. The man's even considering ending his career, as it's certainly possible that he may have lost his touch somewhere along the line. With the starpower of Damon, however, this film may (at least commercially) mark a step forward. The film certainly looks good, but the efforts to sell it as a comedy (once again, a smart tactic commercially) will likely undermine any critical notices as an Oscar contender. Damon COULD score an Actor nomination if the field isn't too crowded, though.
It's Chances?: Don't put any serious money on the table for this one, folks (not that you shouldn't see it anyway).

An Education(Sony Pictures Classics)-October 9
A coming-of-age story set in 1960s London about Jenny, a bright young girl soon to be 17 with dreams of Oxford until she is caught up in a romance with the older David (Peter Sarsgaard).
Okay, I'll admit: I know zip about this movie. I haven't even watched a trailer for it, and it completely missed my radar. Despite this, the film was a big hit at Sundance, nominated for the Grand Jury Prize and winner of the Audience Award. If it reaches an audience stateside, who knows how successful it could be?
It's Chances?: It can definitely get in, as long as Sony Classics doesn't screw over the film's marketing campaign.

The Road(Weinstein Company)-October 16
Based on the novel by Cormac McCarthy (who wrote the short story No Country for Old Men- you know how that turned out), The Road stars Viggo Mortensen as an unnamed man who travels with his son across the post-apocalyptic wasteland of an unspecified future.Charlize Theron appears in flashbacks as the man's wife (as I mentioned before, these characters have no names).
The film was originally slated for release LAST year, yet was pushed back to a less crowded release schedule and for extra post-production time (good for the Weinsteins- The Reader got nominated anyway, and now they have a contender for this year, too). The actors and (very depressing) tone and setting (almost akin to a holocaust movie- honestly, Weinsteins- enough of that!) certainly make it seem like an easy contender on paper, but the trailer just hasn't sold me (mainly out of it's effort to sell the film to mainstream audiences- thus making it look like just about every other post-apocalypse movie out there). However, with the Weinstein's usual tactics, a Best Picture nomination seems almost certain.
It's Chances?: Quite good, despite my personal lack of interest.

Where the Wild Things Are(Warner Bros.)-October 16
Now THIS I'm excited about! I certainly shouldn't have to explain this movie to anyone, seeing the timeless popularity of the book. The film simply LOOKS incredible, and it more than succeeded the "style or substance" test (by following up a visually beautiful first trailer with little-to-no dialogue with a second trailer that actually includes dialogue and gives an idea of acting/story quality-I can explain it better in another blog post). Spike Jonze is a great director who's been nominated by the academy previously (in 1999 for Being John Malkovich), and his previous 2 films have received multiple nominations (Being John Malkovich received 3; Adaptation received 4, winning Chris Cooper an award for Best Supporting Actor). Jonze avoids turning the book into standard kiddie flick mush by focusing on psychology and making the story heartfelt and emotional. The actors are all top notch (Forest Whitaker, James Gandolfini, Catherine O'Hara, Nick Nolte, Catherine Keener), and newcomer Max Records' performance could very well be a stunner. If it lives up to its promise (I feel quite confident it will), then the Academy could probably overlook the fantasy and family-film elements and recognize what could very well be one of the best films of 2009.
It's Chances?: Better than you might think, and if it's as great as everyone is saying, then it's practically a shoo-in.

Amelia(Fox Searchlight)-October 23
One look at this film and it's PURE 100% Oscar bait in so many ways it's hardly even funny. It stars 2-time Academy Award-winner Hilary Swank as real-life American pilot Amelia Earhart, and covers the whole shebang of her life story, including her strained relationship with husband George Putnam (Richard Gere) and her disappearance over the Pacific Ocean in 1937. The film co-stars Ewan MacGregor and is directed by Mira Nair, who is mainly known for her widely-lauded films in her native India.
Fox Searchlight is a great distributor and all, but the trailer for this film feels so... conventional. There are probably several reasons I should be excited for this film, but the very concept of the film feels like it was manufactured by Hollywood to win Oscars. Adding to these doubts are the stars themselves- Richard Gere has been mainly working in the direct-to-video film world for a few years now, and Miss Swank, talented though she most certainly is, needs to find a better agent: that a 2-time Best Actress winner (for 1999's Boys Don't Cry and 2004's Million Dollar Baby) gets stuck in dreck like The Core, The Reaping, and P.S. I Love You is simply appalling. It doesn't help that the widely-seen Night at the Museum sequel already featured a far more adorable version of Miss Earhart played by Amy Adams (and was released by 20th Century Fox). Mind you, it may very well BE a great film, but chances are equal that it will end up a major disappointment.
It's Chances?: It just doesn't seem like the big winner to me that it does to everyone else.

Nine(Weinstein Company)-(November 25)
Now HERE'S a piece of 100% Oscar bait that DOES have me sold! Distributed by those wascally Weinsteins, Nine (not to be confused with 9, the upcoming animated film produced by Tim Burton-hey, up here in Canada, they'll both have the same distributor! Isn't that just wacky?) is a big-budget musical directed by Rob Marshall (Chicago, 2002's Best Picture winner- from Miramax!) starring Daniel Day-Lewis (2-time Oscar-winner) as a director facing a mid-life crisis who becomes entangled in several romantic involvements during production of his latest film. These include- Marion Cotillard (his wife), Penelope Cruz (his mistress), Nicole Kidman (his muse), Judi Dench (his confidant/costume designer), an American fashion journalist (Kate Hudson), Fergie (the whore from his youth), and Sophia Loren (his mother).
Now let's review a few things:
+Oscar loves musicals
+Oscar loves the Weinsteins (who already have 2 potential Best Picture nominees this year- but this is their sure thing by far)
+Oscar loves Daniel Day-Lewis (the guy only does a new film every few years, picking his projects very carefully-and it often ends up getting him a nomination)
+Oscar loves pretty much every other person involved in this movie (including Lewis, this film stars 6- yes, SIX- Oscar-winning actors/actresses- plus Kate Hudson got a nomination before for Almost Famous)
+Plus the trailer actually looks- y'know, GOOD.
It's Chances?: It's a lock. Don't ever doubt it for a second.

Brothers(Lionsgate)-December 4
Directed by Jim Sheridan (My Left Foot, In America), Brothers stars Tobey Maguire and Jake Gyllenhaal as two siblings who are polar opposites. When Captain Sam Cahill (Maguire) goes missing overseas, his black sheep younger brother Tommy (Gyllenhaal), recently released from prison, must care for his brother's wife (Natalie Portman) and two children.
Looking at the film's trailer does not give one much confidence in the film's awards potential- it seems to reveal too much, and Maguire seems to be doing some overacting in the small bits we see. Crash aside, Lionsgate is known better for cheap action pics and Saw films than awards contenders. And while Sheridan is certainly a talented director, his last film was 2005's Get Rich or Die Tryin', which does not bolster my confidence in the project.
It's Chances?: Fairly slim, if not virtually nonexistent.

The Lovely Bones(Paramount/Dreamworks)-December 11
I'll keep this quick: Academy Award-winning director Peter Jackson + bestselling book + all-star cast (Saoirse Ronan- previously nominated for Atonement and a likely nominee this year, Mark Wahlberg, Rachel Weisz, Susan Sarandon, Stanley Tucci) + Oscar-winning screenwriters of The Lord of the Rings trilogy + this is now Paramount's only Oscar hopeful for 2009 = Best Picture nomination. That the story itself is super depressing should help, too.
It's Chances?: Unless something goes horribly wrong (which, if we can judge from the new trailer and Jackson's track record, is very unlikely), then consider this a sure thing, a "lock", if you will.

Invictus(Warner Bros.)-December 11
So far we have yet to see anything from this film, but it covers the life of Nelson Mandela after the fall of apartheid in South Africa. Whether or not that interests you is irrelevant, since you're gonna see it anyway once it gets a Best Picture nomination. Wanna know why? Four words:
Directed by Clint Eastwood.
That's right, Dirty harry is at it again in the director's chair, and he brought his good friend Morgan Freeman along to play Mr. Mandela. They got Matt Damon in here, too, as if you didn't need more reason to see this.
It's Chances?: Most likely a lock.

Avatar(20th Century Fox)-December 18
By now this film needs no introduction, and whether we like it or not it is indeed the true event of the holiday season. Will it be good? Undoubtedly? Will it live up to its massive expectations? That still remains to be seen. Can it get a Best Picture nomination? Well, it has a lot working against it- an sci-fi animated film about aliens battling for survival doesn't seem like it has much of a shot. But James Cameron's last film swept the Oscars, winning Best Picture and Director, along with 9 others. However, THAT film (c'mon, you know which one it is) was a change of pace from Cameron's usual sci-fi/action oeuvre, which Avatar squarely fits into. Whether Avatar can transcend the obstacles ahead of it and go for the gold remains to be seen.
It's Chances?: If it has the usual Cameron magic, it most certainly could.

Up in the Air-2009
I'm still not sure exactly when this film is coming out, but it's a comedy starring George Clooney directed by Juno's Jason Reitman. Reitman is a quirky kid, so whether or not the Academy will go for something like this hinges on the emotional depth of the story. We'll just have to wait and see.

My (Early) Prediction:
Coming Soon!