Statistical model predicts Academy Award winners

According to an article in the magazine New Scientist, researchers from the university of Oregon and the university of California have developed a statistical model that can be used to predict Oscar winners with an accuracy of at least 70% (no kidding check it out http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19726494.800-statistics-can-p...)

They accomplished this by analysing the histories of around 1600 Oscar nominees between 1928 and 2006 in the four major categories: best picture, director, leading actor and leading actress and identifying several factors that correlated with Oscar wins, including previous nominations and Golden Globe wins.

Apparently, the model scored three out of four in Los Angeles last month, predicting that Daniel Day-Lewis would win best leading actor, and the Cohen brothers would scoop best director and picture for their film No Country for Old Men.

If you are into Oscar nomination related bets you may be interested in buying the actual paper: www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00518.x
you should have your money back in no time.