If it's crap ... We'll tell you
The Academy Awards will soon be upon us once again and, personally, I can't wait. Since the revamp of the Best Picture race earlier in the year, the Academy has successfully been generating more and more excitment about this year's race due to the fact that they are showing more appreciation towards the public's favorite films. For example, The Blind Side and District 9 were the two highly unexpected nominees in this year's race, but they were highly popular with the public audiences. The Academy also changed the voting system for the Best Picture race this year. Each voter is asked to rank the Best Picture nominees from 1 to 10, 1 being the best and 10 being the worst. After all of the nuber 1's are counted, the film with the fewest number 1's will be eliminated. This process continues until one film has more than 50% of the vote. What does this mean? The film with the most number 1 votes may not win best picture. I know it sounds complex and stupid, but I guess the Academy can make sense of it. Anyway, below are my predictions for the 82nd annual Academy Awards. An X indicates who I think will win, and an * indicates who I think could pull off a possible upset.
***In advance, I'd like to apologize for any spelling mistakes***
Best Animated Feature
Fantastic Mr. Fox (*)
The Secret of Kells
The Princess and the Frog
Hardly any contest here. The only other film that has any shot at beating Up would be Fantastic Mr. Fox, but that would take a huge momentum change, which is not going to happen.
Best Documentary Feature
Food, Inc. (*)
The Cove (X)
Which Way Home
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Expect The Cove to win this. Although Food, Inc. does stand a decent chance, The Cove has swept all of the pre-Oscar awards and definately has a ton of momentum going into the Oscars.
Best Foreign Language Film
The White Ribbon (X)
Un Prophete (*)
The Milk of Sorrow
El secreto de sus Ojos (*)
This category can often experience some big upsets, but The White Ribbon is the strongest of the category due to its critical acclaim and large fan base. Possible upsets include France's Un Prophete and Argentina's El Secreto de sus Ojos, which have also generated their own amounts of acclaim.
Best Documentary Short
China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
The Last Campaign of Governer Booth Gardner
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (*)
Rabbit a la Berlin
Music by Prudence (X)
Music by Prudence has a set win here. Although The Last Truck has a chance due to its subject matter, Music by Prudence, the touching story of a disabled Zimbabwean singer will win.
Best Live Action Short
Instead of Abracadabra (X)
The New Tennants
Since I didn't see any of these, I'm just going to go with what the experts are saying.
Best Animated Short
French Roast (*)
Granny O' Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
A Matter of Loaf and Death (X)
The Lady and the Reaper
It's safe to place bets on four-time winner Nick Park's new Wallace and Gromit animated short. French Roast could pull off an upset, but A Matter of Loaf and Death has too much going for it.
The Hurt Locker (X)
Since what makes The Hurt Locker so great is its unique and expert editing, it has the greates chance to win in this category. Avatar could very well pull of an upset here, but don't get your hopes too high.
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker (*)
Inglourious Basterds (*)
The White Ribbon
This race is acutally closer than it seems. The two main contenders here are Avatar, the animated wonderland film, and The Hurt Locker, the gritty and simplistic film. Inglourious Basterds is also a strong contender, but is outside looking in when it comes to Avatr and The Hurt Locker. Some voters are in love with the beautiful work in Avatar, while some are upset that it's all animated and enjoy The Hurt Locker's style instead. Avatar should edge out The Hurt Locker in this race, but don't expect anything.
Best Visual Effects
Nothing needs to be said here.
Best Sound Editing
The Hurt Locker
Although Up has a very samll outside chance, Avatar will win, no question. Much of what makes Avatar so effective is its sound, not just the amazing visual effects.
Best Sound Mixing
The Hurt Locker (*)
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
The Hurt Locker has a decent shot here due to the effectiveness of the film's overall sound, but Avatar will most likely win.
Best Art Direction
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Sherlock Holmes (*)
The Young Victoria
Some may argue that Avatar is all computer generated and doesn't count, but Avatar will still win this award. Sherlock Holmes and Nine both have outside chances, but in the end, they don't stand a chance against Avatar.
Best Costume Design
Coco Before Chanel
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
The Young Victoria (X)
Expect The Young Victoria to win here. Although Nine has a good chance, The young Victoria was designed by two time Oscar-winner Sandy Powell, and this category is dominated by films dealing with royalty.
Star Trek (X)
The Young Victoria (*)
The magnificent work in Star Trek proves too mighty for its other competitors. Although the Yuong Victoria has a small chance, the Academy awards sci-fi or fantasy films in this category nearly every year.
Best Original Score
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Hurt Locker
Up will win this category without question. Michale Giacchino's majestic score has already swept all of the pre-Oscar awards and has big momentum going into the ceremony.
Best Original Song
"Almost There"- The Princess and the Frog
"Down in New Orleans"- The Princess and the Frog
"Loin de Paname"- Paris 36
"Take it All"- Nine
"The Weary Kind"- Crazy Heart (X)
No contest here. The Waery Kind has swept all of the pre-Oscar awards and has everything going for it going into the ceremony.
The Big Ones
Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9- Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
An Education- Nick Hornby
In the Loop- Jesse Armstrong, etc.
Precious- Geoffrey Fletcher
Up in the Air- Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (X)
This is one of the easiet races to call in the Academy Awards this year. It was nice of the Academy to recognize In the Loop, which was a great film. However, most voters probably haven't even seen it. Precious' Geoffrey Fletcher will also get quite a bit of votes for his gritty screenplay, and District 9's Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tactchell will also get their amount of recognition.Despite all of that, Up in the Air's Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner will be the winners. Up in the Air's screenplay was arguably the best of the year and it carries the film's only real chance at winning. Expect no contest here.
Best Original Screenplay
Inglourious Basterds- Quentin Tarantino (X)
The Hurt Lcoker- Mark Boal (*)
The Messenger- Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman
A Serious Man- Joel and Ethan Coen
Up- Pete Docter, etc.
In my opinion, this is the toughest race to call. For the recent months, everyone was predicting a landslide victory for Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds. However, The Hurt Locker's fan base has grown considerably, making it a front-runner for nearly every award its nominated for. First off, A Serious Man's nomination proves that the Coen Brothers are some of the best writers in the last 20 years or so, scoring their fourth nomination, while Up's nomination proves that Disney/Pixar are officially getting more involved with their storytelling for each new film that is released by them. The Messenger's nomination was a surprise, although it was well-deserving and it makes it the only film to be nominated in this category without being nominated for best picture. That leaves The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds.The recent momentum gain of The Hurt Locker makes Mark Boal's script a strong contendor against Quentin Tarantino's script for Inglourious Basterds. I think that Inglourious Basterds will have just enough supporters for this category to squeeze past The Hurt Locker, but anything can happen.The Hurt Locker's heavy momentum going into the Oscar's, plus a WGA award for Mark Boal that was given recently make it strong contenders against Inglourious Basterds. Don't expect a winner for this category until the actual ceremony.
Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique- Precious (X)
Vera Farmiga- Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick- Up in the AIr
Maggie Gyllenhaal- Crazy Heart
Penelope Cruz- Nine
This one hardly needs an explination. Mo'Nique has won nearly every pre-Oscar prize she has been nominated for and is clearly the favorite for this category. Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick are both excellent in their roles for Up in the Air, and the surprise nominee, Maggie Gyllenhall, is perfect for her role in Crazy Heart. However, none of them will even come close to the powerful and dominant Mo'Nique in this category.
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon- Invictus
Woody Harrelson- The Messenger
Christopher Plummer- The Last Station
Stanley Tucci- The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz- Inglourious Basterds (X)
In another highly predictable category, Christoph Watlz will walk away with an easy victory. Matt Damon and Stanley Tucci, who have both been fellow nominees of Waltz for nearly every major awards ceremony this season will once again remain seted when this award is called. Congratulations to Woody Harrelson and Christopher Plummer though, who both added an Oscar nomination to their prestigious resumes, especially to Christopher Plummer, who scored his first career Oscar nomination at 80 years old. However, Waltz will be the star of the night.
Jeff Bridges- Crazy Heart (X)
George Clooney- Up in the Air
Colin Firth- A Single Man
Morgan Freeman- Invictus
Jeremy Renner- The Hurt Locker (*)
Expect Jeff Bridges to win this award. Bridges has been the late favotrite in many of the major pre-Oscar awards and he will finally recieve an Oscar after five nominations. The nominee that will come closest to Bridges will be Jeremy Renner due to The Hurt Locker's massive momentum gain. However, George Clooney, Morgan Freeman, Colin Firth, and Jeremy Renner, while all great in their roles, will be pushed aside by the soon-to-be triumphant Jeff Bridges.
Carey Mulligan- An Education
Sandar Bullock- The Blind Side (X)
Helen Mirren- The Last Station
Meryl Streep- Julie & Julia (*)
Gabourey Sidibe- Precious
This one is a bit more tricky to predict. Obviously, the two main contenders here are Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep, and it has been a tight race between the two since the beginning of the awards season. It is very unfortuante that such great talent is cast out of the race in this category. Gabourey Sidibe was amazing in Precious and Carey Mulligan was brilliant in An Education. Even though they will not win, its still great knowing that the two will have bright careers ahead of them. With Helen Mirren totally overlooked due to her recent win for The Queen, Sandra and Meryl are left to go head to head in this category. Both of them won a golden globe, and they both tied at the Critic's Choice Awards this year. However, Sandra edged out Meryl at the SAG awards, which makes her the slight frontrunner. Meryl Streep could very well upset Sandra Bullock, depending on how the voting goes, but Sandra has the deinate edge with the SAG award and the momentum. The Blind Side's Best Picture nomination should also assist as well.
Kathryn Bigelow- The Hurt Locker (X)
James Cameron- Avatar (*)
Jason Reitman- Up in the Air
Lee Daniels- Precious
Quentin Tarantino- Inglourious Basterds
This is also a tough category to call. Kathryn Bigelow deinitley has history on her side with the DGA award recently (55 out of 61 years the winner of the DGA award has gone on to win the Oscar) ,but James Cameron could also make some noise here. Lee Daniels became only the second African-American to score a nomination (The first was Boyz N the Hood's John Singleton in 1992), and Jason Reitman as well as Quentin Tarantino both landed their second nominations for this category. However, this one will come down to the two ex's in the end. James Cameron has a very decent shot at upsetting Bigelow here due to his revolutionary Avatar, but The Hurt Locker was so wonderfully directed, that you can't help but root for Bigelow. Along with the momentum of The Hurt Locker and the recognition of Bigelow throughout the season, expect Bigelow to become the first woman to take home the prize in this category.
The Blind Side
The Hurt Locker (*)
Inglourious Basterds (*)
Up in the Air
A Serious Man
I just have a feeling that this is going to happen. Even though the momentum is clearly with The Hurt Locker, Avatar will probably win Best Picture. The race will be VERY CLOSE however, because of the new Best Pcture voting system. Here's the deal: The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds and Avatar have the three largest fan bases within the Academy. These three films will most likey be the three remaining after the elimination processeces are done with. With that being said, Inglourious Basterds will most likely be the first one to go out of the three because of the fact that it can't stand up against the massive amount of supporters for Avatar and The Hurt Locker. The battle between Avatar and The Hurt Locker will be extremely close, and there will be many voters wavering back and forth between the two films. However, in the end, James Cameron's Avatar will come out on top. Even though the Hurt Locker clearly has the most supporters, Avatar is being promoted as "Revolutionary" and "The greatst film ever made", which may make some voters pause and think about which film they actually want to vote for. Even with that being said, the race could still go either way. The Hurt Locker supporters could stand strong and win thir movie the top prize, while Inglourious Basterds could sneak in and take home the prize due to its massive and rabid fan base. Although Avatar has the slight edge over the other films, it could go either way.
Thank you for reading my Academy Award Predictions. Feel free to comment and tune in to the Academy Awards to see how accurate I was =).