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2011 Oscar Predictions (What Should Win vs. What Will Win)
Best Documentary Feature
What Should Win: Exit Through the Gift Shop
What Will Win: Inside Job
I haven't seen either of these movies, but I intend to watch Exit Through the Gift Shop very soon, so this prediction is based mainly on the buzz surrounding the nominees. The audience favorite is Exit Through the Gift Shop, but something tells me that the Academy's gonna vote for the more politically controversial nominee Inside Job.
Best Visual Effects
What Should Win: Inception
What Will Win: Inception
There's really no contest here. The gravity-shifting hallway fight scene was the most innovative and epic action scene in recent memory, and I don't even know why the Academy is nominating other movies in this category. Harry Potter had lights, mist, and creatures, Alice and Wonderland had cartooney creatures, Iron Man 2 had all the CG models from Iron Man 1, and Hereafter had ONE SCENE OF VISUAL EFFECTS... why was THAT nominated?
Best Sound Mixing/Editing (there's barely a difference)
What Should Win: Inception
What Will Win: True Grit or Inception
It's hard to predict a winner in these categories for obvious reasons. What qualifies as superior sound design? Inception is probably gonna be one of those movies that the Academy gives all the technical awards to because it has no chance of winning Best Picture. True Grit might get it because the Academy is totally biased towards the Coen Brothers.
Best Original Song
Who Should Win: "We Belong Together" - Toy Story 3 - Randy Newman
Who Will Win: "We Belong Together" - Toy Story 3 - Randy Newman
This guy has been nominated for Best Original Song for all three Toy Story movies, but has not won for them, even though they were more memorable than the songs that actually won the Oscar. I mean, come on. This is Randy Newman we're talking about. He managed to get Meet the Parents nominated for an Oscar. He's only won one, out of his many nominations, but because I literally don't remember any of the other nominated songs this year, I'm gonna go with "We Belong Together".
Best Original Score
Who Should Win: John Powell for How to Train Your Dragon, or Hans Zimmer for Inception
Who Will Win: Trent Reznor and that other guy no one recognizes for The Social Network
I showered The Social Network with praise when I saw it, but I don't really remember the score all that much. Apparently, everyone else did, so... yeah. Not my first choice, but okay.
Best Makeup
What Should Win: Anything but The Wolfman
What Will Win: Not The Wolfman
I liked The Wolfman a lot, and I love makeup artist Rick Baker even more, AND I like a lot of the makeup in The Wolfman, but I'll be the first to admit that there were parts in the movie where the makeup looked downright silly. Sadly, I haven't seen the other two nominees, so I can't make a precise prediction.
Best Costume Design
What Should Win: Alice in Wonderland
What Will Win: Alice in Wonderland, True Grit, or The King's Speech
Again, this is a category where the winner is up in the air sometimes. I really didn't like Alice in Wonderland, but I think it's got a shot in this category. The award will probably go to True Grit or The King's Speech. The Academy loves the period pieces.
Best Art Direction
What Should Win: Alice in Wonderland
What Will Win: Alice in Wonderland
This seems like the obvious choice since the art direction in Alice in Wonderland was the most... well, "artsy". And it's colorful and shit, so... it has that going for it too.
Best Editing
What Should Win: 127 Hours
What Will Win: 127 Hours
When trying to predict what movie will win Best Editing, it's probably you're safest bet to go with the movie with the most of it. Case in point: 127 Hours. The movie's quick cuts and slick pacing add to the movie's constant feeling of claustrophobia, elevating this above the other nominees.
Best Cinematography
What Should Win: Black Swan
What Will Win: True Grit or The King's Speech
Black Swan's cinematography made me uncomfortable (in the good way), but sadly this award will go to either of the two most nominated movies of the ceremony.
Best Foreign Film
What Should Win: Uh... I only saw Biutiful, so... I got nothing.
What Will Win: Anything but Biutiful
The Academy likes to recognize films unknown to American audiences rather than give the award to movies some Americans might have actually seen. This happened both last year and the year before that, with Departures beating Waltz with Bashir, and The Secret in Their Eyes beating both A Prophet and The White Ribbon.
Best Animated Feature
What Should Win: This category shouldn't even exist.
What Will Win: Toy Story 3
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Should Win: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network
Who Will Win: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network
Yet another case of "no contest". This movie has been picking up screenwriting awards left and write* (see what I did there?), and it deserves them ALL. The script IS the best thing about The Social Network.
Best Original Screenplay
Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan for Inception
Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan for Inception
It would be a crime to not give Christopher Nolan the award after snubbing him for both The Dark Knight and Inception in the Best Director category. Plus, no other nominee is as complex and deep asInception.
Best Director
Who Should Win: David Fincher forThe Social Network
Who Will Win: David Fincher for The Social Network or Tom Hooper for The King's Speech
I love The King's Speech, but mainly for the performances. Take away Colin Firth, Helena Bonham Carter, and Geoffrey Rush, you've got a completely average and competent movie. Direction wasn't really the major thing that stood out in it, and I've lost a lot of respect for Tom Hooper the moment he considered editing down The King's Speech to a PG-13 rating to make a little more money.
1. The movie shouldn't even be rated R. It has two scenes with swearing and none of it was for offensive or shock value. Editing the movie is basically letting the Nazis win.
2. He actually wants to bleep the F-words.... for real, I'm not joking. Imagine you're watching a movie where every swear word is bleeped. Why would you pay for such an annoying experience?
Anyway, The Social Network is my vote because everything about it kicked ass.
Best Supporting Actress
Who Should Win: Amy Adams for The Fighter or Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit
Who Will Win: Melissa Leo for The Fighter
I don't necessarily have a problem with this. All of the actresses nominated were fantastic in their roles, my personal favorites being Amy Adams and Hailee Steinfeld. Melissa Leo is definitely gonna win, and I'm fine with that.
Best Supporting Actor
Who Should Win: Christian Bale for The Fighter
Who Will Win: Christian Bale for The Fighter
Here's the thing with The Fighter: its supporting cast is much, much more superior to its main actor, Mark Wahlberg. They shine way more then him, and they're gonna get the awards. And might I say, it's about time Christian Bale got nominated.
Best Actress
Who Should Win: Natalie Portman for Black Swan
Who Will Win: Natalie Portman for Black Swan
This is inevitable. Clearly she and director Darren Aronofsky were on the same page while making Black Swan. Natalie perfectly portrayed innocence, gentleness, fear, anxiety, timidness, and insanity all in one character in a span of two hours. It takes a lot of skill for an actor to perform a slow character transformation, but Natalie nailed it. She deserves this.
Best Actor
Who Should Win: James Franco for 127 Hours
Who Will Win: Colin Firth for The King's Speech
Once again, I loved Colin Firth's performance, and it deserves much praise, but I can't help thinking that this is the Acadamy's way of saying, "Hey, Colin. Sorry we couldn't give the Oscar to you last year. It's just that you were up against Jeff Bridges and, you know, he was overdue for an Oscar, so we gave it to him even though his character wasn't all that complex. We'll recognize you this year, though." 127 Hours wouldn't have been as great as it was had it not been for Franco's performance. Whoever wins doesn't really matter to me, but if it were my decision, Franco all the way.
Best Picture
What Should Win: Black Swan
What Will Win: The Social Network or The King's Speech
The King's Speech is the type of movie the Acadamy loves, and it won the top awards at the SAG and DGA Awards. However, hundreds of names in Hollywood, journalism, and media have addressed The Social Network as the best movie of the year. Who will win will probably once again come down to whoever wins Best Director.
*actually happened subconsciously. Totally by accident.
Views: 52
Tags: 2011, acadamy awards, academy, award, blogs, celebrities, oscar, predictions, the social network, toy story 3
Comment
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Comment by Ricky L. on February 21, 2011 at 4:04pm -
@ Loethlin
How to Train Your Dragon was a pleasant surprise for me. I went in not expecting a whole lot out of it, and came out of it very surprised by how good it was. However, I don't think it really compares to Toy Story 3 in terms of the sheer emotion it brings out of the viewer. I remember seeing Toy Story in theaters when I was a little kid and I loved it. The thing that Toy Story 3 succeeded in doing was bringing back that sense of wonderment and reminding you why you cared about these characters after all these years, the same way that seeing one of your old toys can make you remember how much you loved them. It also had a great villain in Lotso. How to Train Your Dragon lacked the emotional punch and depth that Toy Story 3 had. I was never concerned about Hiccup and his friends, but I was terrified for Woody and the gang at the end of Toy Story 3.
However, I do appreciate How to Train Your Dragon and you have a right to your opinion. It is a good film, but you've got to accept that you're in the minority if you honestly think it's a better movie than Toy Story 3.
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Comment by Loethlin on February 21, 2011 at 6:57am -
I still don't understand why people fap over Toy Story 3.
How to Train Your Dragon was in my opinion so much better.
But hey, it's PIXAR! Academy LOVES Pixar!
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Comment by Dominique Meyer on February 20, 2011 at 1:24pm -
Don't be so sure. We got Cars 2 coming up. Probably won't be Pixar's strongest.
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Comment by Ohstate411 on February 20, 2011 at 12:37pm -
Okay for now on the oscars should just give pixar an oscar because pixar will always win.
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Comment by Ricky L. on February 15, 2011 at 7:38pm
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Okay, Toy Story 3 is going to win Best Animated Feature. That is a given, but that's no reason to dismiss the entire category. Animated films are some of the best films ever made, but it's unlikely that one will ever actually win Best Picture, because the Academy has a sort of prejudice against them vs "real movies." That's bullshit, but it's not going to change anytime soon, so let them keep this category so that animation can at least get some proper recognition from the film community as a whole, rather than just from those of us who already appreciate it.
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Comment by Matthew Mustin on February 15, 2011 at 6:22pm -
I'm pesonally getting really sick of everybody hating The King's Speech just because of all it's nominations. I think it's a fantastic film and I loved almost every minute of it. Is it the best film of the year? No, but that doesn't mean it's the overated piece of crap everybody says it is. Besides, I still think The Social Network is going to win anyway (even though that's the not the best film of the year either).
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Comment by Dominique Meyer on February 15, 2011 at 8:08am
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Because it's obvious that Toy Story 3 is gonna win, since the Academy considers it one of the 10 best movies of the year. Yes, it gets other animated movies recognized, but it's utterly pointless in my eyes.
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Comment by Ricky L. on February 15, 2011 at 4:49am
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Just out of curiosity, why do you think Best Animated Feature shouldn't be a category?
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Comment by thejon93rd on February 14, 2011 at 9:50pm -
*James Franco and 'The Social Network' for the win, mother fuckers.
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Comment by thejon93rd on February 14, 2011 at 9:49pm
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It amazes me how overrated 'The King's Speech' is. I walked in expecting a feel-good period piece; I walked out disappointed by a film with good performances and solid dialogue. Why was I disappointed? Well, what the hell was so important about 'The King's Speech' to begin with? In no way shape or form did I find it inspiring or uplifting. None of the high-royalty characters are developed (except for Firth and Pearce's character) and they are all completely unlikable; there's a point where a prime minister, who's about to leave, uses a line that felt like it was written for a different script (essentially a cheesy action movie). As well, the film ends on one of those notes that leaves you confused. It ends on a shot of a character, looking at another, and his expression is just... okay, I'm sorry that I have no idea why you tacked this on.
The number one problem I have with the film's ending is that the film itself is supposed to be about the friendship between the two leads, and how Lionel (Rush) pretty much saves the King's life, and it suddenly decides to end on a note that says: "Screw it". There's a sense of jealousy in one character's eyes as the other gets all the glory. The performances in the scene are incredible (especially from Rush who gives a much stronger performance than Firth with a character who's truly the heart of the movie), but the direction and/or scripting makes the odd choice of ending on that generic text screen that all period piece must have. Let's just say this piece of text reads: "...and they remained friends for the rest of their lives."
I was not the only one in the theater laughing when that came up. That was a shitty ending and, if anything, it proves that this film is not the "masterpiece" all the dick-sucking critics are saying it is. 'The King's Speech' is not a masterpiece. It is a made-for-TV movie on a bigger budget with name-actors; nothing more. James Franco and 'The Soci
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